Week 7: Post-Mortem

Week 7 Record: 12-2 (SU), 10-3-1 (ATS), Confidence Score = 99/105, Survivor Pick = Denver Broncos (+)

SU = Straight Up, SU-C = Confidence Index (Straight Up), ATS = Against the Spread

So, how do I sum up this week? As the numbers clearly show, I had my best week of the season. And it wasn’t like I was sitting on a ton of cakewalk picks per se either, as I snuck the Panthers on a cover (granted I lost the actual outright winner there), and nailed my prediction of the week of a Saints marching into Baltimore and departing victorious. Also had the Rams with an absurd 11 on the road and pulling it off handily, while the Patriots took over the AFC East as predicted, alongside a horrific outing for Darnold and loss for the Jets. Looks like the Patriots clinched the AFC East before Halloween this year (Osweiler starting in MIA ended their hopes, and the Bills were never going to factor and things only get worse with the recently signed Derek Anderson getting the nod Nathan Peterman, yikes)! Undefeated call held to form for another week, though their time is sure to run out soon on that front.

I learned some valuable lessons relating to ATS picking last week; this is not to say those learning directly attributed to my success this week, but I certainly thought about those spreads a little more in making picks. One cannot intermingle the outcomes of SU vs. ATS, as that is simply risky business, especially when the spread is dangling that half point in the wrong direction (i.e. Eagles game, as that 3.5 was why I went with the Panthers there). Granted, the Falcons proceeded to give me the royal pooch, blowing a 20-12 lead with exactly 2 minutes remaining to win 23-20 and fail to cover. WHAT THE HECK??? (and that late TD by OBJ cost me in my FFL to boot, ugh)

Biggest week 7 surprises for me? None to be honest. I am no specialist ATS (and I am confident this week will prove to be a statistical aberration soon enough), but on SU picks, I would be lying if I suggested I was the least bit shocked by the Eagles or Jaguars losses. The Eagles are shaky and Panthers a good team that is inconsistent and hard to predict. As for the Jags, well, put a fork in ’em as they are DONE. When you pull the maligned Bortles for Cody Kessler, it is over. Trading for Carlos Hyde made little sense to me (unless Fournette is going to be out even longer than they are leading on to) and he was not going to save Jacksonville this Sunday even if he had played. That D has to be ready to lead a mutiny (if not already happening) – many teams have seen a great D wasted by inept offenses, and here is our latest example of it. Come to think of it, I think my biggest surprise of the weekend was how close the Bears played the Patriots; I expected this one to not be as close as it was, let alone a game where the Bears had ample opportunities to win this one. That Hail Mary was an insane last play of the game – won’t go down in the annals as a comparison to the Kevin Dyson stopped short by the Cardinals, but this was almost more impressive to me than that one by virtue of being a legit Hail Mary. And White FOUGHT to try and get in the end zone admirably. Heck of a play and try no doubt. The Bears continue to confuse me – all the while continuing to be in the hunt for a division title in a wide open division where the Vikings control the scene at 4-2-1. Or do they? And have we legitimately heard the last of the Packers this season?

Atul (SU) Atul (SU-C) Atul (ATS)
Denver Broncos (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (1-5) Broncos 10 Broncos (-1.5)
Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs. San Diego Chargers (4-2) Chargers 11 Chargers (-6.5)
New England Patriots (4-2) at Chicago Bears (3-2) Patriots 13 Patriots (-3)
Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-5) Colts 4 Colts (-6.5)
Detroit Lions (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-2) Lions 3 Lions (PK)
Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1) at New York Jets (3-3) Vikings 2 Vikings (-3)
Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) Eagles 5 Panthers (+3.5)
Cleveland Browns (2-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) Buccaneers 7 Buccaneers (-3)
Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) Jaguars 1 Jaguars (-4.5)
New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) Saints 9 Saints (+2.5)
Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4) Rams 14 Rams (-11)
Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2) Redskins 8 Redskins (-2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Kansas Chiefs (5-1) Chiefs 12 Chiefs (-6)
New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4) Falcons 6 Falcons (-3.5)
Week 7 12-2 99/105 10-3-1
Overall 59-31-1 366/465 34-21-4

 

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