Week 12: NFL Picks

Week 11 was my worst showing in quite some time. I did manage to go over .500 for SU and ATS, but overall, not my best work. I did get the survivor pick correct with the Bears, which was about my only consolation.

Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Baltimore Ravens

Time to take advantage of a match-up that says easy game. This pick is as sure as any to go south, and yet I will roll with it. The Raiders scored another victory which they neither had a need for nor reason to achieve, other than to prove the reality that teams don’t try to tank. Unless the Cardinals actually were also tanking and this was merely a true battle of futility. That said, word is not yet out on the return of Flacco, and Lamar Jackson was quite interesting last week as a full-time QB. This is a nice play for him to get some more reps if the Ravens decide to rest Flacco more. I have read in places that Flacco may be done coming off the heels of success for Jackson – we will find out soon enough. The kid is fun to watch though!

#GameOfTheSEASON: Chiefs. Rams. 54-51. WOW! That truly was an all-time great game. One of the best ever on MNF. Right up there with the Miracle at the Meadowlands. Yes, I know I MAY be biased with that, but I think that comeback and situation just gives it a higher rank. That said, incredible game, back and forth, and extremely entertaining. Both get rewarded with a bye week, and the Chiefs more so rewarded by the Broncos upset, which allowed the Chiefs to remain atop the AFC West.

#NFLDraft2019RaceToTheTop: The mess continues here, another Raiders victory, a Giants victory, a Browns victory. Much changing as far as contenders for the top overall selection in the 2019 draft, and less gap from the teams leading this race and the next rung of opportunity. Lowest win total is now 2, and there are a load of teams with 3. The Jets are suddenly back in contention for the victory in this race, after being seemingly out of it as recently as 2 and 3 weeks ago. How quickly things change in the NFL! The Raiders, Niners, and Cardinals all sit atop this hallowed mountain at 2-8. They are followed closely by the 3-7 Jets, Bill, Giants, Jaguars, and Buccaneers. I have to imagine that the Jags and Bucs have at least a couple of victories each left, leaving us with the battle of NY to invade the battle of California plus Arizona. These are the 6 teams to contend, with 5 games left, and things are not any more clear. BUT, the Giants for all of their stench and the selling close to the deadline, appear a better team than any of the others in this list. Eli Manning is not tanking, so I don’t see them earning that top pick, and they need to go later to justify that inevitable QB selection sure to be scutinized and blasphemed for not being one from the 2018 class when they took Saquon (such a shame because the kid is a stud at RB). The Niners are still stuck with backup QBs that are not very good, while the Cardinals and Jets and Bills roll with their first round QBs. The Jets and Bills have one more game remaining, so that likely will decide the higher selection between the 2. Bills dominated in NJ, so why not once more in the state of NY?

My picks for top 5 are now: (1) Oakland Raiders (2) San Francisco 49ers (3) Arizona Cardinals (4) New York Jets (5) Buffalo Bills. I am unsure how tiebreakers are enforced for the Futility Bowl, and suspect that will play a significant role in the accuracy of my ever changing prophecy. BUT, I remain steadfast in my insistence that the Raiders score the top pick and Nick Bosa.

BYE WEEK:Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams

SU = Straight Up, SU-C = Confidence Index (Straight Up), ATS = Against the Spread

Atul (SU) Atul (SU-C) Atul (ATS)
Chicago Bears (-3) at Detroit Lions Bears 8 Bears (-3)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) Cowboys 12 Cowboys (-7.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13) Saints 13 Falcons (+13)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills Jaguars 4 Jaguars (-3.5)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) Bengals 5 Bengals (-3)
New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Jets Patriots 15 Patriots (-7.5)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) Eagles 10 Eagles (-6)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) Buccaneers 7 Buccaneers (-3)
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3) Panthers 3 Panthers (-3)
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-10) Ravens 14 Ravens (-10)
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (-11.5) Chargers 11 Chargers (-11.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos Steelers 9 Steelers (-3.5)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-9) Colts 1 Colts (-9)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) Vikings 2 Vikings
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5.5) Texans 6 Texans ()
Week 12 0/120
Overall 90-41-1 607/766 62-34-4

 

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